Do you have a question about the war in Iran? Or is there something you want to know about world conflict? Defence expert @John_Stupart is on DMC with answers. John has a Masters in War Studies from Kings College London, is the director of the African Defence Review and is on top of all conflict news through his work as Daily Maverick’s newsletter editor. Ask him all your questions in the thread below 
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Hi John, thanks for taking questions - I have several!
Is it generally accepted that for popular uprisings to result in regime change, with or without external intervention, local military forces need to be willing to change allegiances against current powers? If so, are there any signs that Israeli and US attacks on Iran will aid in that process?
How much material damage has been dealt to Iran by current attacks? How far is this from the amount of damage which would force consideration of capitulation to external demands without troops invading?
How much general shipping and supply chain disruption should be expected in addition to the oil supply shocks as a result of the conflict?
Can attacks on Iran be expected to significantly impact the funding and materiel provisioned to non-state actors in the region? Can we expect other military actions to begin should states sense an advantage against antagonists supported by Iran?
I’d greatly appreciate some thoughts on these questions. 
Welcome!
On regime change: generally-speaking what is needed is for the military to - at the minimum - step aside and do nothing. We saw this all the time in smaller power struggles, most recently in South Korea of all places. The problem with the current US/Israeli campaign is that it lacks any real attempt to dismantle the Iranian Republican Guard. The Ayatollah left a detailed succession plan in place, and his death is unlikely to completely disintegrate the military.
Even if it did, there is a real, major risk of the military dissolving into disparate armed bands. Think of the devastating effects of Iraq post-2003, or Libya after the fall of the state. Things get bad really quickly without stabilising boots on the ground. Trump has yet to indicate any real desire to go this far and seems content to bomb his way to victory.
On shipping: A lot. A fifth of the world’s shipping moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Aside from oil price shocks, expect everything to increase in price. Just as well there’s no cost-of-living crisis unfolding worldwide…
The Houthis and Hezbollah are some of the Iranian-linked organisations already working on their own steam without direction from Iran. This will not be affected short term by Iranian defeat or capitulation. They are well-funded and capable of working on their own steam. We’re already seeing other military action on these groups, however. Israel for example just this morning was considering a land invasion of Lebanon, even though Beirut is pretty hostile against Hezbollah. It’s a mess, and it’s getting messier!