Given the current political climate, what is the likelihood that the tariffs will actually be reviewed or reversed, and what would be required to make that happen?
I agree. I think the private sector will have to go at it on their own.
Outside of US consumer revolt? Whatever will move the markets enough to benefit Trump backers will define the peaks of the rollercoaster… but, there is about 18 months in the effective DJT presidency before he becomes a lame duck and the Republicans rally around the next candidate. So, outside of a constitutional amendment, expect more shenanigans until then.
I think @SharpSchutters is likely to give a more succinct answer here, but in my opinion the primary vector for these tariffs is geopolitical, not economic. The US administration is wielding them like a retributive hammer in order to get South Africa to tow the line on political issues - Gaza, BRICS etc. Should we be willing to bend the knee, I think there would be a high likelihood of not a reversal, but a reduction. Whether that makes sense morally and politically for South Africa is a different question.
Also a bunch of artificial pandering to the Republican base in steel country. It’s an artificial olive branch appealing to the working class and the ravaged communities that have suffered the worst of globalisation. Unfortunately, supply chains have optimised around global paths and will be VERY EXPENSIVE to reroute.
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What lessons, if any, can we learn from history when South African industries faced similar international trade challenges?
Gonna take some bullets here, but in my research and to my mind most of South Africa’s trade wounds in the past were self-inflicted.
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In this article, @ypanchiaDM you wrote that “the overall GDP impact was currently estimated at around 0.2%”, which, out of context, seems like a very small amount. Can you put this 0.2% into perspective for us?
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I see Trump already starting to punt Vance. 
That wasn’t my direct estimate but from the JSE CEO ;).
It’s difficult to quantify an exact number, even for seasoned economists - primarily due to factors such as industry performance and the economics of supply chains. While a number such as that might be an estimate on how direct impacts are assessed - say through revenue through specific industries such as the auto or citrus - the knock on effects are more challenging to estimate.
Consider that should less vehicles or fruit be exported, packaging, inspection, trucking and logistics and shipping will all suffer both job and revenue losses - and that would be definitively higher. It’s a challenge to quantify until the effects are seen unfortunately.
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But did he say thank you 
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Thank you @ypanchiaDM and @SharpSchutters for taking our questions. We have another exciting AMA coming soon, so keep your eyes peeled and questions at the ready 
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@SharpSchutters will also be speaking at The Gathering this year. Get your tickets here.
Thank you guys, really appreciate your time
I’m more handsome than this picture in real life😅
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